Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,280$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,322.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(54,322.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,052$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(988 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,779.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,779.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,598$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $230,698$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,374.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(222,374.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,563$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,495.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26,495.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,689$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $225,435$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,045.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,045.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,908$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,942.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,942.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,351$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $244,995$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(254,363.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,243.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $209,221$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $179,693$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,478.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178,478.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,111$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,678.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26,678.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,255$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,143$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,133.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,679$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,776.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,776.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,493$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,195$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,767.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(43,767.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,699$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(715 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,635.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,635.3\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,329$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,112$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,945.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23,945.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,543$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,565.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,565.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,099$ on 2020-05-17