Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,280$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(6.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,322.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(54,322.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,052$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(988 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,779.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,779.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,598$ on 2020-05-17

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $230,698$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(4.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,374.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(222,374.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,563$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(4.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,495.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26,495.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,689$ on 2020-05-17

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $225,435$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,045.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,045.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,908$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,942.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,942.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,351$ on 2020-05-17

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $244,995$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(254,363.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,243.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $209,221$ on 2020-05-17

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $179,693$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,478.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178,478.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,111$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,678.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26,678.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,255$ on 2020-05-17

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,143$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,133.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,679$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,776.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,776.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,493$ on 2020-05-17

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,195$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,767.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(43,767.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,699$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(715 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,635.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,635.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,329$ on 2020-05-17

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,112$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(2.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,945.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23,945.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,543$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,565.5}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,565.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,099$ on 2020-05-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 95%
Austria recovered 89%
Croatia recovered 84%
Andorra recovered 82%
Germany recovered 80%
Slovakia recovered 70%
Denmark recovered 70%
Lithuania recovered 53%
Czechia recovered 50%
Spain recovered 44%
Italy recovered 37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 29%
Serbia recovered 27%
Romania recovered 24%
Hungary recovered 19%
San Marino recovered 13%
France recovered 8%
Slovenia recovered 2%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,945$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(846 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,782.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(20.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(101.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-05-17

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,242$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,442.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $629$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{624.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(624.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,050$ on 2020-05-17

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,226$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(351 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $95$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(10 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $195$ on 2020-05-17

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $761$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(165 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{748.6}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(748.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(13.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 19.8)}}\) (asimptote \(47.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93$ on 2020-05-17